PUBLICATIONS ON CRISIS BY CHARLES F. HERMANN

AUTHORED AND EDITED BOOKS

• Crisis in Foreign Policy:  A Simulation Analysis.  Indianapolis, Bobbs Merrill, 1969.
  • Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Crises-foreign-policy-simulation-political/dp/B0006BYNTC
  • AbeBooks: https://www.abebooks.com/first-edition/Crises-Foreign-Policy-Simulation-Analysis-Hermann/989020794/bd  
  • Data are analyzed from ten repeated political simulations in which navy officers responded to urgent policy problems varying in threat, decision time and surprise (stipulated components of crisis).

• International Crises:  Insights from Behavioral Research (ed.) New York:  Free Press, 1972.
  • Ch.1: Some issues in the study of international crisis
  • Ch. 9: Threat, time and surprise: A simulation of international crisis
  • Ch. 12 Alternative models of international crisis behavior (with Linda P. Brady)
  • Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/International-Crises-Insights-Behavioral-Research/dp/B002XF475Y
  • Alibris:https://www.alibris.com/booksearch?keyword=international+crises+insights+from+behavioral+research&mtype=B&hs.x=0&hs.y=0
  • The 13 contributors apply historical, sociological, psychological and political approaches to their analyses of international crises from World War I to the Cuban missile crisis.

JOURNAL ARTICLES AND BOOK CHAPTERS

• Eden, Lorraine, Charles F. Hermann and Stewart R. Miller. 2021.  Evidence-based Policymaking in a VUCA World. Transnational Corporations, 28.3: 159-182. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3991016

•  "Some Consequences of Crisis which Limit the Viability of Organizations,"Administrative Science Quarterly 8, 1 (pp. 61-82) 1963.

• Reprinted in John G. Maura (ed.) Readings in Organizational Theory. New York, N.Y.: Random House (pp. 343-358) 1971.
• A series of illustrated propositions examine how a crisis in an organization’s external environment can trigger behavior within the organization that hinders its response to the crisis.

• "International Crisis as a Situational Variable," in James N. Rosenau (ed.) International Politics and Foreign Policy, revised edition, New York, N.Y.: Free Press (pp. 409-421) 1969.

•  reprinted in John A. Vasquez (ed.) Classics of International Relations.  Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall (pp. 171-181), 1986.

• Stipulating 3 critical dimensions of any problem situation as (1) the level of threat to the policy makers, (2) time available, and (3) prior awareness, the author examines different probable decision-making actions for each type of situation including crises defined as high threat, short time, and surprise.

•  "Search Under Crisis in Political Gaming and Simulation," (with James A. Robinson and Margaret G. Hermann), in Dean G. Pruitt and Richard C. Snyder (eds.) Theory and Research on the Causes of War.  Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall 1969.
  •  reprinted in Lucian Kern and Horst-Dieter Ronsch (eds.) Simulation Internationaler Prozesse.  Opladen; West German Press (pp. 330-346) 1972.
  • The authors explore hypotheses about the degree to which policy makers are likely to (1) search for more information and (2) search for possible solutions when faced with a crisis.

• "What is a Foreign Policy Event?" in Wolfram Hanrieder (ed.) Comparative Foreign Policy.  New York: McKay (pp. 295-321) 1971.
  • Defines event, event analysis and crisis, and lays out rules for coding and building a foreign policy event database.

• "Some Issues in the Study of International Crisis," in Charles F. Hermann (ed.) International Crises:  Insights from Behavioral Research. Chapter 1. New York: Free Press 1972.
  • This introductory chapter introduces some of the challenges that have slowed the development of systematic knowledge about situations frequently identified as international crises.

• "Threat, Time and Surprise:  A Simulation of International Crisis," in Charles F. Hermann (ed.) International Crises:  Insights from Behavior Research. Chapter 9. New York: Free Press 1972. 
  • The author presents systematic data on crisis decision making processes obtained from confronting  participants in a repeated simulation with the same sudden crisis problems. 

• "Alternative Models of International Crisis Behavior" (with Linda P. Brady), in Charles F. Hermann (ed.) International Crises:  Insights from Behavioral Research.  Chapter 12. New York: Free Press 1972.
  • Drawing on 311 hypotheses about crisis behavior advanced by the contributors to the present volume, the authors construct 5 different models each built from different combinations of the previous advanced propositions.

• "Indicators of International Political Crises: Some Initial Steps Toward Pre-diction," Jartin Janicke (ed.) Herrschaft and Krise.  Oplanden:  West German Press, 1972.
  • Reprinted in Edward Azar and D. Ben Dak (eds.) Theory and Practices of Events Research:  Studies in International Actions and Interactions.  New York: Gordon and Breach, 1974. 
  • A proposal is advanced for using event data on actions of governments throughout the world to identify initiatives that are likely to be perceived by other governments as triggering a crisis.  

•  “Types of Crisis Actors and their Implications for Crisis Management” in Daniel Frei (ed.)   International Crises and Crisis Management.   Westmead, England: Saxon House 1978
  •  A typology of nations varying in crisis management characteristics is offered to suggest which  countries may best be able to avoid crisis escalation and war.

• "Identifying Behavioral Attributes of Events that Trigger International Crises" (with Robert E. Mason) in Ole R. Holsti, Randolph M. Siverson and Alexander L. George (eds.) Change in the International System.  Boulder, Colo. Westview Press, 1980.

• An analysis of certain attributes of actions (event data) initiated by 36 governments between 1959 and 1968 that were hypothesized to likely trigger a crisis for recipients and thus offered a potential model for forecasting crises.

•  "Trends Toward Crisis Instability:  Increasing the Danger of Nuclear War" in Steve Cimbala (ed.) Challenges to Deterrence in the 1990s.  New York:  Praeger Press, 1986.

• "Enhancing Crisis Stability:  Correcting the Trend Toward Increasing Instability" in Gilbert R. Winham (ed.), New Issues in Crisis Management, Westview Press, 1988. 

• Ten actions—some multi-lateral, some bi-lateral, others unilateral—that could be initiated to reduce the risk that a crisis between nuclear powers might escalate to war.

•  "Crisis Stability in Soviet-American Strategic Relations" in Joseph Kruzel (ed.) American Defense Annual:  1988-89. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington, 1988.

• "On International Crises and National Security" in Edward A. Kolodziej and Patrick Morgan (eds.) International Security and Arms Control.  Westport, Conn.:  Greenwood Press, 1989.

• "Hostage taking, the presidency, and stress" (with Margaret G. Hermann) in Walter Reich (ed.) Origins of Terrorism:  Psychologies, ideologies, theologies, states of mind.  Cambridge University Press, pp. 211-229.  1990.

• "Crisis"  in Joel Krieger (ed.) The Oxford Companion to Politics of the World. 1st Edition. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 205-206.  1993   AND   "Crisis" ( Second Ed.)  New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 182-183.  2001. 

• International crises can be examined from three different levels including the international system impacts, interaction between opposing parties (often bilateral nations), and within the decision making of one nation or other actor.

• "On International Crises and National Security" in Edward A. Kolodziej and Patrick Morgan (eds.) International Security and Arms Control.  Westport, Conn.:  Greenwood Press, 1989. 

TECHNICAL RESEARCH / POLICY DOCUMENTS

• Crisis in Foreign Policy Making.  Final Report to Project Michelson, U.S. Naval Ordnance Test Station, China Lake, California, April 1965 Contract N123 (60530) 32779A.

• Research Tasks for International Crisis Avoidance and Management.  A final report prepared for the Advanced Research Projects Agency, Human Resources Research Office of the Office of Naval Research (Contract N00014-75-C-0053) October 1975.

• Identifying Behavioral Attributes of Events that Trigger International Crises (with Robert E. Mason).  A final report prepared for the Advanced Research Projects Agency, Human Resources Research Office of the Office of Naval Research (Contract N00014-75-0765) October 1978.

• Simulations of Organizational Effects on Crisis and Other National Security Problems:  A Feasibility Study (with Donald A. Sylvan).  A final report prepared for the Advanced Research Projects Agency, Human Resources Research Office of the Office of Naval Research (Contract N00014-75-0765) October 1978.

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Last update: March 2024